Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Fantasy Draft Tip: Michael Turner is Cursed

As fantasy draft time is right around the corner, I feel it necessary to warn you about Michael Turner. He's cursed! Yep. It's the Curse of 370.
The curse dictates that any player who exceeds 370 rush attempts in a single season suffers a significant drop-off in production the following year.
FYI, this is definitely not something I came up with. The curse has been discussed in the fantasy football industry for more than five years now, dating back at least to 2004, when it appeared on FootballOutsiders.com.
Well, after looking at the historical data, let me say that I'm fully behind the existence of a curse. In the history of the NFL, 27 running backs have amassed 370 or more carries in a season … and all but one of them significantly declined in terms of total fantasy points the next year. (That one, LaDainian Tomlinson, somehow escaped the clutches of the curse despite 372 rushing attempts in 2002.) It seems a little too coincidental to assume that the next guy to pull this off would be Turner, who was LT's back up a few years ago.

In addition to the curse working against Michael Turner, he's also got to work against the fact that he plays for the Falcons. The Falcons Suck!
Okay, on a fair note, Atlanta did make some big moves this off-season. Its seems that they worked hard to provide Matt Ryan with more/better passing options. Don't forget about Tony Gonzalez now playing for the Dirty Birds, oh, and the fact that they really want to utilize Jerious Norwood more this season.
I've seen fantasy mock drafts that suggest taking Turner with a top five pick. I'd just like to say that I'm fine with that...as long as you're playing in my league! I'd love to see one of my friends blow a top five pick on a cursed Falcon. That could be as funny to me as the guy (in my league) who picked Randy Moss with the #1 overall pick last year.

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