Friday, July 10, 2009

Fantasy Tip: RBs

That first pick in your fantasy draft is always the toughest. Do you pick Jones-Drew or Frank Gore? Do you take a QB over a RB? Do you consider a WR with a late first-round pick? Questions like these are usually pretty difficult to make when you are on-the-clock, and your drunk friends are screaming at you to hurry. This year, I say throw out the popular belief that you've got to pick up a RB with that first pick. Unless it really is one of the top guys, I'd recommend grabbing a top-flight QB.
I say this because even the best RBs last year will likely see a drop off this year in numbers, and they share more snaps with very capable counterparts. DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner were (by far) the best backs in the NFL last year...fantasy-wise. But this year, Jonathan Stewart and Jerious Norwood will likely see a lot more time on the field. Even last year, Stewart scored as many TDs as Adrian he's got a great chance at getting in even more this year. Plus, he's a little bowling ball down in the red-zone. I really wouldn't be surprised to see him get more TDs than Williams in 2009.

The best RBs did stand out last year, but after them, the middle-of-the-road backs, fantasy-wise, really formed a big pack. I say, pick up a stud of a QB before getting into that RB pack. There will still be a few of them available in the second round of your draft. The best QBs will not!
Guys to take in the first round:
DeAngelo Williams - may see less time, but will still have a monster year
Adrian Peterson - as long as he stays healthy, he should have a better year
Michael Turner - not before pick #8. remember the curse!
Brandon Jacobs - late first round
Brian Westbrook - late first round

If you get the opportunity, definitely consider Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady before any of these guys:
Marion Barber III
Thomas Jones
Matt Forte
Jonathan Stewart
Steve Slaton
Clinton Portis
Maurice Jones-Drew
Chris Johnson
These guys make up the pack of great RBs, who all just seem to stick around the same fantasy-points league. I don't expect any of these guys to have a legendary season. Be safe. Pick them up after you've already got a good QB, or one of the other stud RBs.

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